Chelsea Still In Top Five In Premier League, But Numbers Under Xabi Alonso Offer Reality Check

Chelsea are seemingly still in a good position in the race for Champions League spots, but their numbers under Xabi Alonso have not been as promising.

The 1-0 defeat to Sunderland on Sunday saw Chelsea drop from fourth to fifth in the Premier League table. Sitting in the top five during the November international break does not seem too bad after such an inconsistent start to the season.

Obviously, Chelsea’s spot is by no means secured. They are only three points ahead of Aston Villa in 10th place and could drop out of the top half of the table with another slip-up. However, they are still in a position to achieve the season objective of qualifying for the Champions League.

Unfortunately, Chelsea have likely had to rely on players overperforming to be in this position, which is usually not sustainable in the long run.

According to Opta, Chelsea, who have picked up 16 points from the first 10 league games, have collected 3.1 more points than expected. Based on the expected points metric, Chelsea would actually sit 12th in the table on 12.9 points.

In this imaginary expected points table, Chelsea are behind Tottenham Hotspur and just one place above Manchester United. Both of these clubs have been in crisis conversations.

Individual brilliance in attack is mostly why Chelsea sit way higher than expected, unsurprisingly, but they have also overperformed defensively. Opta estimates that Chelsea have scored 5.01 more goals than expected (xG) and conceded 1.01 fewer goals than expected (xGA).

Joao Pedro and Morgan Rogers are both in the top five in scoring compared to their xG, +1.97 and +1.96, respectively. Emiliano Martinez, meanwhile, ranks sixth in goals prevented (1.6).

While this shows that Chelsea have the personnel to make a difference in games, it also underlies the team’s underwhelming performance in comparison. What happens if Alonso cannot rely on certain individuals to win games?

It is evident from the last four games that Joao Pedro has missed due to a thigh injury. Chelsea won just one of these four games, during which they scored just three goals, two of which came from the other overperforming attacker, Rogers.

What these numbers ultimately demonstrate is that Chelsea have not won games by outplaying their opponents as a team. It is mostly up to Alonso to change this.

Chelsea rank third in shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season at 13.97 per cent, which means they have prolific individuals to bury their chances. This is hindered by the team’s inability to create enough big chances.

Chelsea rank just 11th in the league in big chances (23). To put it into perspective, Manchester City lead the league with 38. In total chances created, Chelsea also rank 10th in the league (103).

The Blues also allowed their opponents big chances. Chelsea concede an average of 0.12 xG per shot they concede, the second-highest in the competition after Manchester United.

Add that Chelsea also concede the third-most shots overall (123), and it is hardly a surprise they have conceded the second-most goals (16) in the top half of the table.

Alonso must improve the team both in creating chances and reducing the number of shots they concede if Chelsea are to finish in the top four of five that they need to qualify for the Champions League. Relying on star players to overperform week in, week out is just not a good recipe for long-term success.